775
FXUS01 KWBC 112000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 12 2024 - 00Z SUN JAN 14 2024
...STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS MORE HEAVY RAIN,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST
COAST...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCLUDING SNOWFALL FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAM WITH MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE
COUNTRY. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND EJECTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM/TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY
SURGES NORTHWARD. AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5)
HAS BEEN OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO, EXISTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
POLEWARD ADVANCE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. WHILE RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK, SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL STREAM/RIVER LEVELS DUE
TO SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR
URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN,
VERY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
THE IMPACTS CONTINUE WITHIN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SYSTEM TRACK AS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER, IS EXPECTED FROM
OMAHA TO DES MOINES AND CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE. IN ADDITION,
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY LEAD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS, WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES MAKING TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO HELP LEAD TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, INCLUDING INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER ARE YET ONLY THE FIRST PART OF THE
STORY AS AN SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
FOLLOW IN THE STORM SYSTEM'S WAKE. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STARTING FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
-20S, -30S, AND EVEN AS LOW AS -40 ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD, GUSTY WINDS WILL
FACTOR IN HERE AS WELL, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -35 TO -50 FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS LOW AS -15 TO -30 INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND
CHILLS OF THIS NATURE CAN LEAD TO FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN WITHIN
MINUTES. THIS FRIGID AIR WILL SOUTH AND EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY.
UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST, COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW,
NOT ONLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO FOR LOWER VALLEY/COASTAL
ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE SO FAR MOSTLY AVOIDED WINTER WEATHER THIS
SEASON. HEAVY SNOWFALL MEASURED IN FEET IS LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND WASATCH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY, SPREADING SOUTH TO THE SIERRA BY SATURDAY. OTHER REGIONAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES CAN EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TOTALS OF 12"+. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WINTER STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS PORTLAND, OR AND BOISE WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND A PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY HERE AND TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME
CHILLY MORNING LOWS POSSIBLE.
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