077
FXUS01 KWBC 112011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 12 2024 - 00Z SUN JAN 14 2024
...STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS MORE HEAVY RAIN,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST
COAST...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCLUDING SNOWFALL FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAM WITH MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE
COUNTRY. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND EJECTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM/TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY
SURGES NORTHWARD. AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5)
HAS BEEN OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO, EXISTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, THE POLEWARD
ADVANCE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN
THE PREVIOUS EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK, SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL STREAM/RIVER LEVELS DUE TO SNOWMELT
COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS,
AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN, VERY GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO NEW ENGLAND, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
THE IMPACTS CONTINUE WITHIN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SYSTEM TRACK AS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER, IS EXPECTED FROM
OMAHA TO DES MOINES, CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE. IN ADDITION, STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY LEAD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS, WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES MAKING TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO HELP LEAD TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, INCLUDING INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER ARE YET ONLY THE FIRST PART OF THE
STORY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
FOLLOW IN THE STORM SYSTEM'S WAKE. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STARTING FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S,
-30S, AND EVEN AS LOW AS -40 ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD, GUSTY WINDS WILL FACTOR IN HERE
AS WELL, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -35 TO
-50 FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AS LOW AS -15 TO -30 INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND CHILLS OF THIS NATURE CAN LEAD TO
FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN WITHIN MINUTES. THIS FRIGID AIR WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND DEEPER INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY.
UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST, COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW,
NOT ONLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO FOR LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEY/COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SO FAR MOSTLY AVOIDED WINTER
WEATHER THIS SEASON. HEAVY SNOWFALL MEASURED IN FEET IS LIKELY FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND WASATCH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, SPREADING SOUTH TO THE SIERRA BY
SATURDAY. OTHER REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES CAN EXPECT HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS OF 12"+. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WINTER STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS
ARE IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS PORTLAND, OR AND BOISE WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND A
PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY HERE AND TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH SOME CHILLY MORNING LOWS POSSIBLE.
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