395
FXUS01 KWBC 120818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2024
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 12 2024 - 12Z SUN JAN 14 2024
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS MORE HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HEARTLAND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCLUDING SNOWFALL FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM WITH A PAIR
OF STORM SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF THESE STORMS
IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) OVERNIGHT FOR A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO FOCUSED OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE BEGINNING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES WHERE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
FOREMOST CONCERN, ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IS PRESENT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, THE POLEWARD ADVANCE OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2" WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT
THIS WEEK, SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN
NORMAL STREAM/RIVER LEVELS DUE TO SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN, VERY GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
MEANWHILE, IMPACTS CONTINUE WITHIN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM TRACK AS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH TO PRODUCE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL. EVEN AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY, CONTINUED COLD AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, INCLUDING INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER ARE YET ONLY THE FIRST PART OF THE
STORY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE HEARTLAND IN THE STORM
SYSTEM'S WAKE. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, AND REACH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY, LEADING TO NUMEROUS
DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS STARTING THIS
MORNING, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S, -30S, AND
EVEN APPROACHING 40 BELOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD, GUSTY WINDS WILL FACTOR IN HERE
AS WELL, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -35 TO
-50 FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AS LOW AS -15 TO -30 INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND CHILLS OF THIS NATURE CAN LEAD TO
FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN WITHIN MINUTES. LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING
ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST, THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A
SECOND STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST, ULTIMATELY LEADING TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH INCLUDES LOWER ELEVATION AREAS INCLUDING PORTLAND,
BOISE, AND SALT LAKE CITY. FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY SATURDAY
OVER WESTERN OREGON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WINTRY WEATHER, A SWATH OF
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
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