984
FXCA20 KWBC 121242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 12/12UTC:
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES OVER THE AREA. THE
GENERAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO
HAVE BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. THE USVI ARE FORECAST
TO HAVE GENERALLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DECREASE FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY
TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE LOWER END OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BOTTOM
OUT ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH A VALUE NEAR 1 INCH OR LOWER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL....BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.2 INCHES. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SO THE MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE LIMITED...AND THEREFORE
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ADDING TO
THAT...THE MID LEVELS WILL BE STABLE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA. THE TWIN FORECAST ALGORITHM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AT AROUND THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TODAY ONWARD...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PARTICULAR RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS EITHER.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. THE USVI ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE TOTALS UNDER 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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