493
FXCA20 KWBC 121907
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 JAN 2024 AT 1900 UTC: UNDER MJO CONDITIONS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT...EXPECT GENERAL DRYING
TREND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONSTRAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AMAZON BASIN IN
THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE DUE TO SEASONALITY AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
IN NORTH AMERICA...AN AMPLE AND PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH CURRENLY
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS SUSTAINING A LONG FETCH FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST FLORIDA...23N
90W...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS...INTO A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHWEST
GUATEMALA. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT THE B OUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM NORTH OF THE CHIVELA PASS...FROM OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
BY SATURDAY EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT. ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA WILL
FAVOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS...TO TRIGGER
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
TO THE SOUTH...THE SEASONAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL DAVOR VERY CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE CYCLE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 13N INTO BARBADOS. BY
SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT IT ALONG 12N 55W INTO TRINIDAD AND
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 11N INTO
TRONIDAD AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...OROGRAHIC INTERACTIONS OF THE MOIST PLUME WITH THE
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 10MM THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
ECUADOR WHERE ITCZ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA INTO SOUTHERN ECUADOR. ON
SUNDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF ECUADOR.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page