151
FXUS01 KWBC 122009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 13 2024 - 00Z MON JAN 15 2024
...HEAVY SNOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND FROM THE
CASCADES/SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA BY SATURDAY. THE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDWEST AS HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH STRONG
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AS THE
STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN EXPOSED AREAS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS TO
IMPOSSIBLE WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE LARGER SNOW AREA WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE
HEAVY SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
LATER. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED.
MOREOVER, SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO RENEWED RISES IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. MODERATE TO ISOLATED
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, IS LIKELY IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, COLD AIR WILL DESCEND FROM WESTERN
CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A BITTER
COLD SURGES SOUTH AND AFFECTS MOST OF THE U.S. THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE WINTER HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS DAILY COLD RECORDS ARE FORECAST.
MOREOVER, DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. AND REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH. WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND WILL FALL BELOW NEGATIVE 30
DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN KANSAS AND INTO
IOWA. VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW AS NEGATIVE 50 DEGREES FROM MONTANA
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE EXTREME APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL POSE A RISK OF FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN AND HYPOTHERMIA.
TRAVELERS WILL NEED TO HAVE A COLD SURVIVAL KIT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.
FURTHER, HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.AS
ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN TIME FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO SNOW AND CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS IN VALLEYS IN OREGON, IDAHO,
NEVADA, AND UTAH, INCLUDING THE PORTLAND, BOISE, AND SALT LAKE
CITY METRO AREAS. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
IN NORTHWESTERN OREGON.
FURTHERMORE, AREAS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM THE INTERIOR
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS THE
FORECAST MAY CHANGE.
MEANWHILE, ON SATURDAY, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, CREATING HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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