301
FXUS01 KWBC 131951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 14 2024 - 00Z TUE JAN 16 2024
...HEAVY-LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAVY
SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A THREAT OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
AND COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING, MOISTURE
FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
INTERSECT COLD AIR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, CREATING A BROAD BAND OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.
THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. IN DETAIL, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. AND REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY WILL FALL BELOW NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN KANSAS AND INTO IOWA.
VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS NEGATIVES 65 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FROM
MONTANA ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A
RISK OF FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN AND HYPOTHERMIA. HAVE A COLD
SURVIVAL KIT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.
IN ADDITION, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY DOWNWIND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE
HEAVY SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 12-24 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND 12 INCHES PLUS
OVER MICHIGAN.
FURTHERMORE, SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. IN DETAIL, SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL IF SQUALLS OCCUR.
MOREOVER, HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST AND RE-DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE
NEAR-RECORD, DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS, WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
OVER THE WESTERN U.S., SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE ROCKIES, WITH ICE (RAIN/FREEZING RAIN) IN OREGON. HEAVY SNOW,
BLOWING SNOW, AND VALLEY ICING WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO POOR TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL FROM OREGON, IDAHO, NEVADA, AND UTAH, INCLUDING
THE PORTLAND, BOISE, AND SALT LAKE CITY METRO AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER WESTERN OREGON, WITH TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER, THERE IS A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ROCKIES MOUNTAINS. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRAVEL
IN, NEAR, OR BELOW AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
IN ADDITION, WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY LATE SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX, AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATING ICE IS
EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IMPACTS FROM
WINTRY WEATHER MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
MEANWHILE, ON SATURDAY, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, CREATING HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST
VULNERABLE. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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