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FXCA20 KWBC 161245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 16/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR AND VERY SIMILAR FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER. THE GENERAL
WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY TURNING ESE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXPECTED WIND
FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL CAUSE EASTERN
PR TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY. THE DAILY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO MAX OUT NEAR 0.20 INCHES...WHILE THE
USVI COULD HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...MEANWHILE...WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EACH DAY.
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE STABILITY EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT IT WILL CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WORKWEEK...THEN WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ESE AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING A COL
JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS INDICATING A
PERSISTENT INVERSION AT 850MB THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
INVERSION ERODING ON FRIDAY ONWARD...ALIGNED WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE ESE WINDS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES
FOR EASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE USVI. WESTERN PR IS FORECAST TO HAVE TOTALS UNDER 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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