201
FXCA20 KWBC 161825
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT POLAR TROUGH
EXIEING THE EAST COAST OF THE USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA....NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIVELA
PASS...PUEBLA/MEXICO CITY...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
INTO EASTERN CHIHUAHUA/WEST TEXAS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHERN
CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE THE FRONT LOOSES
DEFINITION IN AREAS WEST. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS FAVORING A TEHUANTEPECER JET ON TUESDAY...AND IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. NOTE THAT SURFACE SPEEDS SOUTH
FO THE CHIVELA PASS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 50KT OFF THE COAST
DURING TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...ENHANCED ONSHORE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTH CHIAPAS AND WEST
TABASCO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ON NORTH AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ
EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 15MM AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
REGIONS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NROTHERN PORTIONS.
IN WEST CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA DEREASEING TO 20-40MM IN REGIONS NORTH OF
THE CHIVELA PASS. IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM..WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15MM. IN NORTH CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...EXPECT
CONVECTION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER
10MM/DAY. EXPECT MUCH MORE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 23N 65W AND EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA/SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER CONVERGENT MJO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE ROLE OF THE RIDGE IN LIMITING
PRECIPITATION. AREAS PRONE TO PRECIPITATION WILL ORGANIZE WITH
MOIST PLUMES IN THE TRADES AND ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A MOIST PLUME IS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATION
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON TUESDAY. THIS INCREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS RELOCATING TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...SEASONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AS THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON
WEDNESDAY AND ON...EXPECT THE LARGEST AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWEST PANAMA...WHERE DAILY MAXIMA IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THEREFTER.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC ITCZ
AND A TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR AN
UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION REGIME IN THE GUIANAS AND AN
INCREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS. ON TUESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA...AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN AREAS WEST. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA.
ON THUSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
AMAP0A/FRENCH GUIANA WHILE AREAS WEST AND NORTHERN GUIANA SHOULD
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. TO THE WEST...ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN THE
PAFICIC WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN ECUADOR/SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. THIS INCREASS TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON
WEDNESDAY...DECREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALSO...NOTE THAT A NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE AMAZONIAN NET/ITCZ
IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT ON AN
ACTIVATION OF CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE ANDES IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA BY THURSDAY.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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