467
FXCA20 KWBC 171224
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EST WED JAN 17 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 17/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE TYPICAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR AND VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE GENERAL WIND
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BECOMING
ESE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE AND DRY AIR WILL ALTERNATE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WIND AND MOISTURE PATTERN WILL CAUSE EASTERN PR TO RECEIVE
SOME RAIN EACH DAY. THE DAILY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PR IS
FORECAST TO MAX OUT NEAR 0.20 INCHES...WHILE THE USVI COULD HAVE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MEANWHILE...WESTERN PR IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN EACH DAY...BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT IT WILL CAUSE EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK...THEN WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
ESE AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING A COL
JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND THE COL
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TWIN
ALGORITHM IS NOW INDICATING A PERSISTENT INVERSION AT 850MB
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ERODING LATE SUNDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES FOR EASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA. THE USVI AND WESTERN PR ARE FORECAST TO HAVE FROM 0.10 TO
NEAR 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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