717
FXCA20 KWBC 171924
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST WED JAN 17 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 17 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: THE CURRENT POLAR BLAST
IN NORTH AMERICA IS FAVORING AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK. IN THIS STORM
TRACK...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IN EAST CANADA IS SUSTAINING A LONG
FETCH SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
THEN RETREATS NORTHWARD AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN NORTH CUBA AND
IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AN ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF THE USA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...NORTH VERACRUZ...SOUTHERN COAHUILA AND CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO.
YET...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTH FO THE CHIVELA
PASS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON
FRIDAY-TO-EARLY SATURDAY...EXTENDING INTO NORTH GUATEMALA. ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY. NOTE THAT A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS
FORECAST TO START ORGANIZING LATE ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CUBA...JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO EAST HONDURAS. THIS
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS.
SEASONALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEASONAL PRESENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER CONVERGENT MJO CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
FAVOR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION. A
TROUGH IN THE TRADES IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS
AND ISLAS DE LA BAHIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER REGION THAT SHOULD
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS IS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO CENTRAL PANAMA. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING GRADUALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. LASTLY...A MOIST PLUME
IS PROPAGATINC ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NORTH INTO MARTINIQUE AND IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...UPPER WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER SUBEQUATORIAL JET
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. UPPER
WESTERLY FLOW AND ESPECIALLY THE JET TEND TO FAVOR A DRYING
TREND...GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER TROPOSPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPPER DIVERGENT
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER
RIDGE...USUALLY MOIST...WILL BE CONSTRAINED PRIMARILY TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AREAS
WHERE THE ITCZ INTERACTS WITH THE CONTINENT...PRIMARILY
AMAPA/FRENCH GUIANA TO THE EAST...AND ECUADOR/SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA
TO THE WEST. IN THE EAST...EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ACCELERATED EASTERLIES IN THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
COASTAL/WESTERN ECUADOR. THIS DECREASES GRADUALLY TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY FRIDAY.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page