601
FXUS01 KWBC 180801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU JAN 18 2024
VALID 12Z THU JAN 18 2024 - 12Z SAT JAN 20 2024
...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE NORTHWEST/ROCKIES; ADDITIONAL ICE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN...
...BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES
WITH HAZARDOUS SNOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY...
..ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
YET ANOTHER SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
WILL OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COASTLINE WITH STUBBORN COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THIS NEXT WAVE.
ACCORDINGLY, MODERATE TO MAJOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, INCLUDING DANGEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES. THIS COULD
EXASPERATE EARLIER DAMAGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER THE LAST
WEEK. AROUND THE SAME TIME FREEZING RAIN CREEPS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED HIGHER UP IN THE CASCADES, WITH SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING
1" AN HOUR LEADING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 FEET SATURDAY.
MOUNTAIN PASSES (PARTICULARLY IN THE CASCADES), WILL LIKELY SEE A
MESSY MIX OF HEAVY SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN THESE AREAS. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND WASHINGTON,
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AS SOILS IN THE AREA ARE VERY SATURATED. BY
TOMORROW, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES,
PARTICULARLY LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE AN ADDITIONAL FOOT IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FOCUS FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT WESTWARD HOWEVER AS THE NEXT WINTER
WEATHER MAKER WILL SPIN UP TODAY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WITH SNOW LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. FREEZING
RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER THIS AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ADVANCE OF THE
HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
THE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS, AND A STRETCH OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOTED
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST CAN ENJOY A SHORT LIVED BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON TODAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S AND
70S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THE FIRST WAVE EARLY THIS WEEK, DAYTIME
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORDS POSSIBLE, ASIDE FROM THE WIND MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
ASHERMAN/SANTORELLI
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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