104
FXCA20 KWBC 181248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EST THU JAN 18 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 18/12UTC:
THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE USVI.
HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN RAINFALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY...WITH
WESTERN PR HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL OVER
EASTERN PR AND USVI WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING ESE
FROM FRIDAY UNTIL SUNDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING ENE FOR MONDAY. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE UP AND DOWN IN PATCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN THE
BELOW NORMAL VALUE OF 1.1 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF THE NORMAL RANGE. THIS WIND AND MOISTURE
PATTERN WILL CAUSE EASTERN PR TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY. THE
DAILY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO MAX OUT NEAR
0.15-0.30 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LUQUILLO
MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE USVI COULD HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN EACH DAY. WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN
EACH DAY...EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE TOTALS NEAR 0.20
INCHES ARE FORECAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...THROUGH TODAY INTO
VERY EARLY FRIDAY...THEN WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ESE AS THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING A COL JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE COL IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS MUCH. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS INDICATING A PERSISTENT
INVERSION AT 850MB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ERODING ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT AN INVERSION MAY BE OBSERVED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES
FOR EASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
THE USVI AND WESTERN PR ARE FORECAST TO HAVE FROM 0.10 TO NEAR
0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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