541
FXCA20 KWBC 191245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 19/12UTC:
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL AND THE
HI-RES MODELS...BUT THE OVERALL THE IMPACT MAY NOT BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT AS THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED ARE STILL FAIRLY
MODEST AND UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED...THE LOCAL
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO AN ESE DIRECTION TODAY...PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO A E-ENE DIRECTION ON MONDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UP AND DOWN IN PATCHES THIS WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RANGING BETWEEN THE BELOW NORMAL VALUE OF 1.1 INCHES TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE NORMAL RANGE.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RANGING FROM 0.9 TO 1.2 INCHES. THE
FORECAST WIND AND MOISTURE PATTERN WILL STILL FAVOR EASTERN PR TO
RECEIVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY...BUT IT WILL BE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE DAILY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PR IS
FORECAST TO MAX OUT NEAR 0.15-0.30 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OVER THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE USVI COULD HAVE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY. WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN EACH DAY...THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING THE WINDS TO BE FROM THE ESE AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THEN ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING THE WINDS TO
SHIFT E-ENE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES FOR EASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA. THE USVI AND WESTERN PR ARE FORECAST TO HAVE FROM 0.10 TO
NEAR 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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