956
FXCA20 KWBC 191739
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1238 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 JAN 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY/MONDAY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGHLIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AS WELL AS IN COASTAL ECUADOR.
NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...THE POLAR OUTBREAK CONTINUES ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES. THIS ASSOCIATES WITH A LONG FETHC SURFACE FRONT
THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL GULF...NORTH VERACRUZ...CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA...CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIVELA PASS...CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU. BY
SUNDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS ALSO ORGANIZING. BY FRIDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST CUBA INTO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO ISLAS DE LA BAHIA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WEST HAITIAN
PENINSULA...JAMAICA...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. THE EVENT ASSOCIATES
WITH A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
INITIALLY/THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHWEST GUATEMALA AS ONSHORE FLOW INTERACTS
WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE...DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WHILE IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTHERN HONDURAS AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF
10MM IN JAMAICA. ON SATURDAY...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES...ESPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. COASTAL AREAS FROM VERACRUZ INTO
TABASCO AND INCLUDING NORTH CHIAPAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN
NORTHERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH
THE SHEAR LINE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO FAVOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
IN CENTRAL MEXICO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY. IN
THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPCT THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN NORTH CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SUNDAY...FROMTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE IN
EASTERN CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. IN NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA...THE
SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE IN JAMAICA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ON SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN USA WILL STIMULATE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY IN WESTERN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND IN NORTH SONORA/NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. EXPECT
ISOLATED SNOWFALL IN HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL OF WEST DURANGO.
SOUTH AND EAST OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...HONDURAS...EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUTNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PACIFIC BASIN OF ECUADOR. HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER -
EXCEEDING 60MM - AND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AT 850 HPA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
AS THE ITCZ CONVERGES IN NORTH ECUADOR. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE TO
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SUNDAY.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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