131
FXUS01 KWBC 191953
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 20 2024 - 00Z MON JAN 22 2024
...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPSLOPE SNOW
FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST; HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE PLAINS, AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A SOLID NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND, THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NEAR THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST
AND THE MICHIANA REGION OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, AS
WELL AS THE HIAWATHA NATIONAL FOREST IN THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL
ALSO BE HEAVIEST IN THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MULTIPLE FRONTS WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE STEADY
HIGHEST-ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE WEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND
BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH INCORPORATING PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW
CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THE WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE REGION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE. FROM SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING, THE HEAVIEST RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE COLUMBIA GORGE, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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