876
FXUS01 KWBC 212006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2024
VALID 00Z MON JAN 22 2024 - 00Z WED JAN 24 2024
...HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY; MODERATE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...
...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE WEST; MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE WESTERN GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/ MID-ATLANTIC MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEYS.
IN ADDITION, THE FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN U. S. WILL STREAM MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, WHICH WILL AID IN
PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE FLOW WILL
ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
TEXAS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD AIR OVER THE
COUNTRY S MIDDLE PART, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MOVES
MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, CREATING MODERATE
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN
SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE
SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LIGHTER SNOW OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES SOUTHWARD, FLOWING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN
SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, WITH A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE WEST,
SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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