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FXCA20 KWBC 221249
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EST MON JAN 22 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 22/12UTC:
THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN THOUGH THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR
OBSERVING SOME RAINFALL EACH DAY. THE USVI COULD ALSO OBSERVE SOME
RAIN EACH DAY...THOUGH ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE A BIT MORE RAIN THAN ST CROIX. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE RAINIEST DAY THIS WEEK...WITH
NEARLY 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR...AS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SOME
RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER...RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
ON FRIDAY AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...DOWN TO UNDER AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL...DECREASING
TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE
LOCAL COASTAL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE ENE FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK...AT AROUND 10-15 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AND BECOMING BREEZY
TO AROUND 20 KT OR HIGHER BY THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE A RESULT OF A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERING THE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STALL ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS
WEEK...CAUSING THE PERSISTENT ENE WINDS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEK. THE EGDI
ALGORITHM AGREES IN THE STABILITY AND DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THERE
IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THE TWIN ALGORITHM DOES
SUGGEST A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE 800-850 MB LEVEL THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES FOR EASTERN PR...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI. WESTERN PR AND ST CROIX
ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE FROM 0.10 TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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