531
FXCA20 KWBC 221925
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EST MON JAN 22 2024
NOTE: THE DAILY TROPICAL DISCUSSION WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY 26
JANUARY 2024.
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS A DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE GREATER ANTILLES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE USA...INTO
WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. EMBEDDED ARE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDS INTO WEST SONORA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. EXTREME NORTHWEST SONORA CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHWEST CHIHUAHUA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN SONORA...CHIHUAHUA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. NORTHWEST MEXICO CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO COAHUILA/CHIHUAHUA...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DURANGO AND SINALOA....WHERE IT BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION. THE REGION WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS AND THUS A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAINS IN FOR
NORTHERN MEXICO. NORTHERN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHIHUAHUA...SONORA...AND NORTHERN
COAHUILA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...EASTERN TEXAS...AND NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON.
NORTHEAST TAMAULIPAS IS EXPECTED MAXIMA BELOW 15MM...HOWEVER...A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENT CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. OTHER REGIONS OF
MEXICO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORING
TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE
OF THE KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...AND NORTHEAST CUBA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL OF ECHO TRAINING IN
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. NORTHEAST CUBA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...NORTH JAMAICA...AND EAST COSTA RICA/NORTH
PANAMA...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE
REGION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE OVER
THE LESSER WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...INTO TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE BAHAMAS. MAXIMA IN TURKS
AND CAICOS...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO...AND INTO HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A HIGH LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
GUIANAS ON MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...AND REACH
NORTHERN BRASIL BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ON MONDAY...EASTERN AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM...WHILE CENTRAL PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER 15MM IN
NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EASTERN
COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS LOWER LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION INCREASING MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE. LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL AND GUIANA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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