130
FXUS01 KWBC 222000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MON JAN 22 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 23 2024 - 00Z THU JAN 25 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, LOWER
GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST...
...MUCH MILDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL CAN
BE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY...
ARCTIC AIR WHICH HAS BEEN WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE LAST WEEK WILL BE REPLACED
THIS WEEK BY MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,
INCLUDING THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND
LARGE AREAS OF THE SOUTH GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF CAN BE EXPECTED, AND THERE WILL BE
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING INCLUDING AREAS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND
NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IN FACT,
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, THE RESURGENCE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR WILL FOSTER AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS AREAS OF THE
MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD AIR MAY
STILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS
WELL, AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST NEW
YORK WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR AREAS WHERE
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED, THERE MAY BE AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE AREAS RELATIVELY COOL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE INTRUSION OF PACIFIC AIR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY REACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHICH
WILL BE A VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO THE VERY COLD AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK.
ORRISON
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