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FXCA20 KWBC 231248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 23/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR ARE EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE PR/USVI AREA. THIS WILL
BE DUE TO THE PREVAILING EAST TO ENE WIND FLOW AND THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TODAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
AREAS OF EASTERN PR. EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
RAINIEST DAY...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE RAINY AS WELL...AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING OVER 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL...DECREASING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO ENE FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK...AT AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI.
THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE A RESULT OF A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...CAUSING THE PERSISTENT EAST TO ENE WINDS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE NO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES
FOR EASTERN PR...1.0 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.50 INCHES. THE USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.0 INCHES FOR
THE 5-DAY TOTAL.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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