783
FXUS01 KWBC 240748
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EST WED JAN 24 2024
VALID 12Z WED JAN 24 2024 - 12Z FRI JAN 26 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST...
...MUCH MILDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...
REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF
STATES, MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW SO THE
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WITHIN A RICH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO COASTAL RAINFALL AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS TODAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSED BY THE EMERGING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST POWERING IT WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SNOW MELT ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S AND LOWS 40-50 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN MANY PLACES. THESE
ANOMALOUS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BREAK MANY RECORDS,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAMPBELL
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