667
FXUS01 KWBC 242001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST WED JAN 24 2024
VALID 00Z THU JAN 25 2024 - 00Z SAT JAN 27 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MAINE/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
...UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE WORST OF IT FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST-TO-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHERE THE CONFLUENCE OF
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE A FEW TORNADOES AND SEVERE-WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD RISK PIVOTS INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE REMAINING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, BUT AT A LOWER/MARGINAL RISK.
THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WARM
SECTOR ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE FREEZING RAIN GETS GOING OVER PARTS OF VERMONT, NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE 0.1". LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHEAST.
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE EAST
COAST AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RECORDS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES, SIERRA AND ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
KEBEDE
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