861
FXCA20 KWBC 251253
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 AM EST THU JAN 25 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 25/12UTC:
THE PREVAILING E-ENE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...THOUGH MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE USVI.
OVER THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH AROUND A HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PR...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE. MAX RAINFALL OF UNDER A HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN IS FORECAST TOMORROW...AND UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
FORECAST EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THESE MAX VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR WHILE LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH EACH DAY...AND WESTERN PR IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OR NO RAIN EACH DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES TODAY AND
DECREASING...AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RESULT OF A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN A SFC
LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING A WEAKENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFTING WINDS TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THEY ARE DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE NO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD BE APPROACHING ON MONDAY...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BEING
THAT THIS IS TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES
FOR EASTERN PR...0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.50 INCHES. THE USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES
FOR THE 5-DAY TOTAL.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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