567
FXUS01 KWBC 251304
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
755 AM EST THU JAN 25 2024
VALID 12Z THU JAN 25 2024 - 12Z SAT JAN 27 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MAINE/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
...UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SUPPORT REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN THE INFLUX OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE
THE CONFLUENCE OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD RISK PIVOTS INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE REMAINING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE
FREEZING RAIN GETS GOING OVER PARTS OF VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN MAINE. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO
ECLIPSE 0.1". LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHEAST.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE EAST COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ON FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE WELL OVER 30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RECORDS BEING BROKEN FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RECORDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAND AS
RECORD-SETTING IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT FARTHER NORTH, COOLING
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY EVENING MAY SPOIL THE WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
ELSEWHERE, LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CASCADES, SIERRA AND ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 + INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO
FRIDAY - A FEW ISOLATED AREAS MAY EXCEED 8 INCHES.
CAMPBELL/KEBEDE
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