984
FXCA20 KWBC 261933
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES INTO
NORTHEAST MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY. OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE WEST ATLANTIC...MOIST PLUMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE MOVING
WEST ALONGSIDE THE LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EAST
NICARAGUA...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS FAVORING GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 10-20MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST REGION...EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS. ON
SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES
SOUTHEAST...INTO THE SOUTHEAST USA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN VERACRUZ. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE DUE TO A PASSING ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE AND A
DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO OVER MEXICO WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHEAST OAXACA...INTO
TABASCO/CHIAPAS...WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM ON SATURDAY. EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 25MM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND AMOUNTS
IN EAST COSTA RICA...EAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS....AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CAN ALSO EXPECT MAXIMA
UNDER 25MM. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WEST CUBA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST IN
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTH VERACRUZ...EAST
OAXACA...NORTHERN CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO CAN EXPECT 20-40MM WITH
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. CENTRAL GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
NORTHWEST HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHEAR LINE. EASTERN COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO SEE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...WHERE IT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. A TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
ISLANDS. MAXIMA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DRY AIR IN THE TRADE WINDS IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ITCZ/NET INTERACTIONS...AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION DUE TO THE
POSITIONING OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA AND
EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST BRASIL AND NORTHERN PERU ON FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTHWEST BRASIL IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...NORTHERN BRASIL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE WEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN WESTERN
ECUADOR. ON SUNDAY...WEST COLOMBIA...WEST ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN
BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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