840
FXUS01 KWBC 271823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
122 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 28 2024 - 00Z TUE JAN 30 2024
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS SERIES OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION...
STUBBORN MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AND LED TO DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS HELPED TO INDUCE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE ORGANIZING SYSTEM FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS UP THE
EAST COAST. GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD WITH UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAS LED TO A CORRIDOR
OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE IN THIS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHTER WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS.
FURTHER NORTH, CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE
ATLANTIC AIDED BY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A BAND
A PRECIPITATION WHERE COLDER AIR RESIDES NORTH OF A LIFTING WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. A WINTRY MIX WILL
BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE OF SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING 4" FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK EAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 8" POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWEST AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL SOME SNOW/SLEET MAY MIX
IN THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL COME DOWN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS ONE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATER MONDAY, BRINGING RENEWED
SHOWER CHANCES TO COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO MODERATE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 30S IN NEW ENGLAND AND
GREAT LAKES; 40S AND 50S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS, AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST; 60S FOR FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
THE WEST COAST; AND 70S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MANY HIGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH RECORD
LEVELS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PUTNAM
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