702
FXCA20 KWBC 291252
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 AM EST MON JAN 29 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 29/12UTC:
A LARGE POLAR TROUGH IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONT.
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE FRONT ALONG 31N 68W...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...GULF OF HONDURAS. OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WESTERLIES HAVE ESTABLISHED IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
NEARING 25MM OR WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
FAVORING A GRADUAL WINDSHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLIES TO SOUTHERLIES
ON MONDAY. ALSO NOTE THAT WINDS SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY...FAVORING VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
CONVECTION IN NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA.
THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST THIS WEEK IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ON
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE LOSING DEFINITION. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO VALUES
AROUND 40MM WILL FAVOR A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION. GIVEN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CLUSTER IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND PRODUCE MAXIMA IN THE 0.3-0.5
RANGE.
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDULATE ANOTHER
FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING RAPID PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 40MM...OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY PRIMARILY IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES. THIS DECREASES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page