871
FXUS01 KWBC 291948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST MON JAN 29 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 30 2024 - 00Z THU FEB 01 2024
...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND APPALACHIANS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
...MILD END TO JANUARY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ENHANCED BY A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE JANUARY AVERAGES BY 10-20+ DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ARE IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID-60S ARE AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A FEW
DAILY RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. HIGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH 50S AND 60S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AS CONDITIONS ARE
SLOWER TO MODERATE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S IN NEW ENGLAND, 30S AND 40S FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND 50S AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC
WAVES PASS BY THE REGION. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXPECTED TO BEGIN BRINGING IMPACTS TO THE WEST
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING, AND RAMPING UP THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AS WELL AS A
DEEP, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WARM AIR WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH AT FIRST, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND SIERRA NEVADA. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
THREAT OF SOME FLOODING. HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH TOTALS MEASURING
INTO MULTIPLE FEET, IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS (GENERALLY
ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET) OF THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA NEVADA
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AND REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
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