680
FXCA20 KWBC 301230
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
729 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 30/12UTC:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...A LONG FETCH FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT IS
PROGRESSIVE AND IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME...PUERTO RICO LIES BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
A MOIST PLUME LOCATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE SAN JUAN 00 UTC SOUNDING
SHOWS A TRADE WIND CAP SITTING NEAR 850 HPA. THE TRADES HAVE
ALREADY REVERSED AS THE POLAR TROUGH APPROACHES...AND ARE FROM THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AT 05 TO 10KT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE-AVERAGE
VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR WET CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. LATE EVENING
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA NEAR 0.1-0.2 INCHES ALONG
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS IN
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.4 INCHES NORTHERN SLOPES OF CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO...WHILE IN COASTAL AREAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES. AS
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSIST...EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.3-0.4
INCHES IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER POLAR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
PASSES RAPIDLY...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER PUERTO RICO AND
PRODUCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. A STABILIZATION COMES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TRADE WIND CAP
GRADUALLY BUILDING DURING FRIDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND RAPID PROGRESSION
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO MAXIMA OF 0.25 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR
OF NORTHER PUERTO RICO...AND MAXIMA UNDER 0.15 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
PLUME...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
NORMAL VALUES.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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