086
FXUS01 KWBC 310757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST WED JAN 31 2024
VALID 12Z WED JAN 31 2024 - 12Z FRI FEB 02 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, MODERATE
SNOW OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/ CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE ROBUST PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER CALIFORNIA, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE SHASTA AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS WILL GET HEAVY SNOW FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY, THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL AIM AT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INLAND
OVER MOST OF THE WEST, RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST.
MEANWHILE, A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO THE
RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER, OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, A FRONT MOVING OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL AID IN CREATING LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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