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FXCA20 KWBC 311256
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 AM EST WED JAN 31 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 31/12UTC:
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ANEGADA...THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO INTO THE PUNTA CANA REGION IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS
FAVORING ONSHORE FLOW AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST ACTICITY
IS CLUSTERING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO NEAR THE LUQUILLO REGION. MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN VIEQUES. OF RELEVANCE...A TROPOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVE IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...TO POTENTIALLY
HIGHLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY.
IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS IN THE
WESTERLIES...SEVERAL FRONTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. NOTE THAT MODELS ARE INCREASING THEIR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASINGLY UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEAR NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO TO LOSE DEFINITION LATER IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND IS
APPROACHING 45MM. THIS IS FAVORING STRONGER RAINFALL RATES THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 1-1.25 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA...WHILE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES.
A NEW FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH PUERTO RICO LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION REACHING
AREAS SOUTH OF THE VI BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATION...STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FAVORING MODERATE AMOUNTS. EXPECT
ACCUMULATION IN THE ORDER OF 0.3-0.6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...15KT NORTHWESTERLY TRADES WILL LIKELY
FAVOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...WHERE OUR FORECAST
SUGGESTS MAXIMA OVER 1 INCH.
A THIRD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM REMAINING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ARE SUGGESTING CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS EVOLUTION AND ON HOW FAST THE
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN EXITS THE REGION...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS
MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING THE VI.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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