349
FXCA20 KWBC 011252
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EST THU FEB 01 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 01/12UTC:
A SURFACE FRONT IS DISSIPATING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS STILL FAVORING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
PORTIONS OF THE VI...WHILE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN
PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW LOCATED JUST
TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO
SOUTHEAST CUBA. THIS FRONT IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE 15-20KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
10-15KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. INITIALLY...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.5-1 INCH...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FROM THE EVENING AND ON...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. 24-HR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 0.4-0.6 IN
RANGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS CLOSE TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH OF 21N...WITH LIMITED IMPACTS IN THE REGION. OF INTEREST IS
A POTENT AND LARGE POLAR TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN
SEABOAR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON THE
ORGANIZATION OF A LONG-FETCH MOIST PLUME FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AHEAD AND NORTH ATLANTIC OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVOLUTION IS STILL LOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI SOMETIME
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. IN THE MEAN
TIME...WE ARE REFLECTING AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION ON
MONDAY...WHEN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-0.75 RANGE WITH LOCAL MAXIMA
EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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