985
FXUS01 KWBC 020810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2024
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 02 2024 - 12Z SUN FEB 04 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST FRIDAY AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
FOR THE SIERRA AND SPREADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING...
...MILD, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES FRIDAY,
EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS ACROSS THE WEST. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO
KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED ALONG THE WEST COAST. HEAVY HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES
ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING IN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND ANY SNOW THAT MIXES IN SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME DOWN FOR A PERIOD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS AS COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT CAPE, ALONG WITH EXPECTED STRONG
WIND SHEAR, FOR SOME MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS THE
EXPECTATION FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS TO PUSH EASTWARD MAY
ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND AN
ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHERE A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY HELP TO LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY, LEADING TO A BIT HIGHER THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IS IN EFFECT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLEARING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES MILD AND ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT
LAKES, THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OHIO
VALLEY, THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAROLINAS, AND
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR THE GREAT
BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
60S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
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