583
FXCA20 KWBC 021229
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
729 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 02/12UTC:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT OF RAPID PROPAGATION
EXTENDING ALONG 25N 55W...VIRGIN ISLANDS...SOUTH OF THE MONA
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE STIMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS EVIDENCED BY THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING INLAND...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
METRO AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A LARGE AND POTENT POLAR TROUGH FORECAST
TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY AND DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THIS
LARGE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE A LONG-FETCH MOIST
PLUME...FORECAST TO TRANSPORT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. AS
IT PROPAGATES WESTWARD...THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER-LIKE STRUCTURE
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN. AS GUIDANCE
GRADUALLY ENTERS IN PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD OF THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI WILL BE
BETWEEN MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURING
THIS PERIOD...EXPECT ACCUMULATION OFG 3-5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY IN THE PONCE REGION. IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND THE VI EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF
3 INCHES.
IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...AS POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WANE IN NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO LIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A
SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AT 850 HPA WILL FAVOR RAINFALL
MAXIMA IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...WHERE
EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
VIEQUES...REACHING AMOUNTS OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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