925
FXUS01 KWBC 022002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EST FRI FEB 02 2024
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 03 2024 - 00Z MON FEB 05 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST FRIDAY AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
FOR THE SIERRA AND SPREADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING...
...MILD, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
ALONG THE WEST COAST. HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MANY OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING IN
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS,
AND ANY SNOW THAT MIXES IN SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY MEANWHILE THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER, THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY
TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
AS COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT CAPE, ALONG WITH EXPECTED STRONG WIND SHEAR,
FOR SOME MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS PER SPC WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHERE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY, LEADING TO A BIT HIGHER
THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S TO 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES,
THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY, THE
50S AND 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAROLINAS, AND THE 60S AND
70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CLOUDY COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CAMPBELL/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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