619
FXUS01 KWBC 030800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2024
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 03 2024 - 12Z MON FEB 05 2024
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE GULF
COAST...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN...
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND VERY HEAVY SNOW TO CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...MILD, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...
WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL WARM, MOIST GULF AIR NORTHWARD HELPING TO
FUEL SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS
BEEN OUTLINED FOR THIS REGION AS THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME REPEATED/TRAINING STORMS, WILL BRING THE RISK OF
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.
TO THE WEST, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE REGION. MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL SEE TOTALS BETWEEN 5-10". SOME MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INCREASING FOR AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING SOUTHWARD
INTO COLORADO. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY,
LINGERING LONGEST FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A SLOW MOVING
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES UP INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND VERY
HEAVY, MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COASTAL
CALIFORNIA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY
LEAD LEAD TO SOME INITIAL INSTANCES OF FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW IN EFFECT. THE IMPACTS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF FAVORABLE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES, WARM, MOIST AIR KEEPING SNOW LEVELS HIGH, AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5"+
AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1" PER HOUR. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS THESE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WILL
BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS
THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUDSLIDES. A SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO
IN EFFECT INLAND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS. FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET, VERY HEAVY, DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL
OF SEVERAL FEET IS FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SNOW, VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DAMAGING HIGH SURF ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. ALL ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE THAT WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES AND THE 50S FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. WHILE
NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
NORTHEAST, 50S FOR THE CAROLINAS, AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, DROPPING
HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
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