841
FXUS01 KWBC 031929
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST SAT FEB 03 2024
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 04 2024 - 00Z TUE FEB 06 2024
...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME IMPACTS OVER MUCH OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOCUSES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE
BAY AREA DOWN THROUGH BIG SUR. CONDITIONS WORSEN ON SUNDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA
BARBARA, VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT (COLD FRONT) WILL PRODUCE A
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING SITUATION. IT'S STRONGLY RECOMMENDED THAT
PEOPLE: HEED WARNINGS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL, THE
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE GUIDANCE AND AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. BROADER MODERATE (LEVEL 3/4) AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE SIERRA,
LEADING TO AN EXTREMELY IMPACTFUL HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACTUALLY SPILLING OVER INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE 4-6'+ OF SNOW IS PROBABLE. HIGH WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WITH WHIPPING RAIN IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY. THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DIRECT ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BENEATH A
PERSISTENTLY STRONG JET STREAK. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, ORANGE, SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES OF
AROUND +30-40 DEGREES WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 40S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
KEBEDE
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