543
FXUS01 KWBC 040800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2024
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 04 2024 - 12Z TUE FEB 06 2024
...LIFE THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME IMPACTS OVER MUCH OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUNDAY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL BRING
IMPACTFUL AND DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINS, HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND HIGH SURF TO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM, MOIST AIR STREAMING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC, FAVORABLE STRONG ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW, AND
COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT FOR INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD,
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN RATES
UPWARDS OF 1"/HOUR. THERE IS NOW A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 4/4) FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4)
ENCOMPASSES THE HIGH RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL RANGES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LA BASIN SUNDAY, AND FROM THE LA BASIN
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES MONDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RANGE BETWEEN 3-6" FROM THE
CENTRAL COASTAL RANGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LA BASIN AND ALONG
THE PENINSULAR RANGES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA, AND 6-12" INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND TRANVERSE RANGES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH,
URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUDSLIDES.
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ALONG UPSLOPE
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA SUNDAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
EFFECT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE THE HEADLINE OF THE EVENT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA, GENERALLY ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL
FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW RATES OF 2-3"/HOUR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS, NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RANGES
WILL ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. IN ADDITION TO BOTH THE
FLOODING RAINS AND HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF
60-70 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES. DANGEROUS, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOODING ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND INLAND BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN IN NEVADA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN IDAHO/WYOMING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TO THE EAST, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOIST, GULF AIR NORTHWARD LEADING ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED INSTANCES OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. LOCALLY
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
MAY LEAD TO SOME MORE ORGANIZED, SUPERCELL STORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE THREAT OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S ARE UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES OVER
EARLY FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
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