281
FXUS01 KWBC 050800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST MON FEB 05 2024
VALID 12Z MON FEB 05 2024 - 12Z WED FEB 07 2024
...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CENTERS ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLOWLY PIVOTS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FUELED BY THE INFLUX OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE, FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) IS ONCE
AGAIN IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA BASIN AND THE
EASTERN TRANSVERSE RANGES, WITH AN ENCOMPASSING MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-8" WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL BRING
48-TOTALS AS HIGH AS 8-14" FOR SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASINGLY
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND ONGOING FLOODING WILL BE FURTHER
EXACERBATED BY THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR
LIFE-THREATENING, LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH, URBAN, AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND
MUDSLIDES. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LINGERING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST,
AND ALSO INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVERALL. COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH
SURF WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
VERY HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA, GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET, WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL FEET EXPECTED. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR AND
GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH WILL KEEP TRAVEL DANGEROUS TO
IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND, BRINGING HEAVY HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWS TO THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES OF IDAHO AND WYOMING MONDAY, AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND FOOT WILL BE
COMMON, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 2+ FEET POSSIBLE. LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW, BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED. FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE ONGOING INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA. RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-3" MAY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
AND MILD.
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