398
FXCA20 KWBC 051247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EST MON FEB 05 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 05/12UTC:
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN USA IS RAPIDLY
AMPLIFYING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FORMIDABLE
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIMULATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST PLUME FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE ACROSS
THE BASIN AND MODEL AGREEMENT...THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN PERIODS
WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PUERTO RICO STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. THE SAN JUAN 00 UTC SOUNDING SHOWS AN ELEVATED TRADE
WIND CAP...SITTING NEAR 700 HPA...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER ALONG THE
CORDILLERA AND SOUTHERN SLOPES ON MONDAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA AND IN
THE PONCE REGION.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START ON TUESDAY
MORNING...AS THE MOIST PLUME FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE ISLANDS BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT AMOUNTS
OF 1-3 INCHES IN MOST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO...ALTHOUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE CORDILLERA COULD AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER
ACCUMULATION. IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF
1-2 INCHES AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN SAINT CROIX. ON WEDNESDAY...AS
THE PLUME MEANDERS EASTWARD...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO PRIMARILY IN
MORNING HOURS AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN 24 HOURS ENDING ON
THURSDAY MORNING...THE EVENT WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE 1-1.5 INCHES
IN THE VI...AND 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EASTERN PORTIONS. A NOTICEABLE
DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER. LOOKING INTO FOUR-DAY TOTALS
ENDING ON 12 UTC FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA POTENTIALLY NEAR 7 INCHES
IN SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA AND MAXIMA OF 4-6
INCHES IN MOST OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...EXPECT AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. IN VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN VI EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...AND
MAXIMA OF 2-3 IN SAINT CROIX. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO...WHERE FOUR DAY TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
1-1.5 INCH RANGE.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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