135
FXCA20 KWBC 052053
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EST MON FEB 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 FEB 2024 AT 1930 UTC: A MULTI-DAY WET SPELL
IS POSSIBLE INTO MIDWEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...DOWN ACROSS CUBA AND INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MIDWEEK.
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INSTABILITY OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES. IN ADDITION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN CUBA BY THIS EVENING...PUTTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AT NEAR OR OVER 100 KT. THIS
STRONG UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF VENTILATION TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE BAHAMAS. WITH EACH PASSING DAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...CAUSING STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THEN PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ON TUESDAY...BUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AFFECTS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL....EACH DAY SOME PART OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES WIL HAVE SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAINFALL MAX THAT SURPASSES
50MM...WHILE SIMILAR WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS ACTIVE AS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. IN
FACT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST TO SKIRT
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO PANAMA BY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ON WEDNESDAY OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THE RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE MAX AMOUNTS EACH DAY WOULD
BE IN THE ORDER OF 15-25MM FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD HAVE DAILY MAX TOTALS OF 25-45MM ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LESS RAINFALL
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. PORTIONS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST DAILY MAX RAINFALL BETWEEN
40-80MM TODAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE STRONG RAINFALL
SECTION ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...WITH
TOTALS MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35-70MM...WHILE SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA AND WESTERN BRAZIL CAN EXPECT MAX TOTALS UP TO 45MM.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY...EVEN
THOUGH THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...THERE IS A SECTION OF WESTERN ECUADOR THAT COULD
OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 75-125MM WITH A RISK OF MCS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION...MOST OF THE AREA WOULD OBSERVE MAX VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15-35MM...THOUGH SOME SMALLER AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
ECUADOR AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WOULD STILL HAVE TOTALS MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 50MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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