016
FXUS01 KWBC 060801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2024
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 06 2024 - 12Z THU FEB 08 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT EXPANDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE INCREASING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS
PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULA RANGES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES/TOTALS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE RISK FOR FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS REMAINS GIVEN THE VERY
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL WILL BE
COMING DOWN FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA WHILE REMAINING HEAVY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE TRANSVERSE/PENINSULAR RANGES.
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME PARTICULARLY HIGH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 2+ FEET ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHER RANGES OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SEE TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-12", WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOWER ELEVATION/VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. HEIGHT
FALLS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
ENHANCED CYCLOGENISIS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. SOME
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
MONTANA.
ELSEWHERE, THE MIDWEST, SOUTH, AND EAST COAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD AND ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS, WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST IN PARTICULAR
CONTINUE TO REMAIN UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
40S AND 50S FORECAST. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
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