078
FXCA20 KWBC 061243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 06/12UTC:
OF CONCERN IS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH
CENTERS ON A LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS AN
AXIS INTO NICARAGUA. AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS EASTWARD...IT IS
LOWERING THE PRESSURES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH PUERTO
RICO...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
IS HELPING TO DRAW A MOIST PLUME FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE PRODUCTS...THE PLUME IS ENTERING PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND IS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OR 50MM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. NOTE THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES LATER ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS MORE
THAN TWICE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...AND
THE RADAR IS SHOWING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CORDILLERA.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND STIMULATES LIFT LATER
TODAY...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL-PRODUCING CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN VI. THIS WILL YIELD TO
THE PEAK OF ACCUMULATION IN PUERTO RICO FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 24-HR ACCUMULATION IN THE ORDER
OF 4-5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...AND 1-3
INCHES IN THE VI. NOTE THAT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE VI...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
1-2 INCHES AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 3 ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VI. IN
PUERTO RICO...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF
0.3-0.6 INCHES. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE CROSSING OF A FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS TRAILING THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATING CONVECTION TO CLUSTER IN
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4
INCHES. THE BACK END OF THE MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS
IN THE VI. AFTER THIS PERIOD...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
VEER AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLIES ON FRIDAY AND EASTERLIES ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE
OR IN THE 20-25MM RANGE...EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
REGARDING 72-HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING ON FRIDAY AT 12 UTC...EXPECT
GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 4-6 INCHES IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAXIMA OF 2-4 INCHES IN THE VI
AND FAR NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...AND MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES IN THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page