794
FXUS01 KWBC 061922
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2024
VALID 00Z WED FEB 07 2024 - 00Z FRI FEB 09 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...
...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRANSVERSE AND
PENINSULA RANGES AND MOGOLLON RIM WHERE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES/TOTALS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE RISK FOR FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS REMAINS ELEVATED GIVEN
THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE COMING DOWN FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
REMAIN HEAVY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE
TRANSVERSE/PENINSULAR RANGES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER AND THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT DECREASES.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND, PRECIPITATION WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MID-WEEK. HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR MANY OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH PARTICULARLY HIGH TOTALS EXPECTED IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE AMOUNTS OF 2+ FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHER RANGES OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE
TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-12", WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOWER ELEVATION/VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SEE A MIX OF MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO ENHANCED LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. SOME FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.
ELSEWHERE, THE MIDWEST, SOUTH, AND EAST COAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD AND ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS, WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST IN PARTICULAR
CONTINUE TO REMAIN UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
40S AND 50S FORECAST. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE MIDWEST, SOUTH, AND EAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
DOLAN/PUTNAM
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