426
FXCA20 KWBC 061946
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 FEB 2024 AT 1900 UTC: IN NORTHWEST
MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST
PACIFIC...FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE EAST
PACIFIC...WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN SOUTHWEST USA...INTO SONORA...AND
CROSSES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO. NORTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL SONORA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE STATES OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE OVER MEXICO...EXPECT DRYER CONDITIONS WITH THE ADVECTION
OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ADVANCES OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND JUST NORTH
CHIHUAHUA...WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CONDITIONS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL BETWEEN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY THURSDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...HOWEVER EXPECT DRYER
CONDITIONS.
A UNUSUALLY POTENT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN USA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH ITS BASE OVER NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS YIELDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING AN
UNUSUAL POTENT TROUGH THAT IS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN PANAMA BY TUESDAY EVENING...A POTENT
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INTO
PUERTO RICO/VI...OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA. THE COLD SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES
INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHILE
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION.
ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS FRONT ARE LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER THAT IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR UNUSUALLY LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO/VI ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-125MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY.
EASTERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE POTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LARGER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...WHERE ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON
WEDNESDAY. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA...AND INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES
STATIONARY. BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES...AND EXTENDS INTO NORTH VENEZUELA...WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA. A WEAK PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS
LOCATED IN EASTERN VENEZUELA. FROM ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...TO ST.
LUCIA EXPECT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST INCLUDE
WESTERN ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHERN
PERU...AND NORTHWEST BRASIL DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ. ON
TUESDAY...WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WESTERN ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU
AND WESTERN BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF DIVERGENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION....AS WESTERN ECUADOR INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ.
SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH RISK OF
MCS FORMATION. WHILE THE NORTHWEST CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA...EASTERN ECUADOR...AND
AMAPA-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35M. ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS
FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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