055
FXUS01 KWBC 070800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST WED FEB 07 2024
VALID 12Z WED FEB 07 2024 - 12Z FRI FEB 09 2024
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST;
WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WITH RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP, ENERGETIC
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, AND
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THE
INFLUX OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PAST
WEEKEND'S ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HAS ENDED, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY STILL
BRING A RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG COASTAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TRANSVERSE/PENINSULAR RANGES WILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 6-12", WHILE THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES OF CALIFORNIA WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE
REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-20", WITH TOTALS OVER 2
FEET POSSIBLE. LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS WILL SEE A MIX OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. PRECIPIATION CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO ORGANIZE/ENHANCE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING COLDER AIR ALONG AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET, AND SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS AND SNOWFALL GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4" ARE EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BROADLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS CENTERED ON THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 40S, 50S, AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S ARE UPWARDS OF 25-35
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR NEW ENGLAND, 40S AND 50S FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS, 50S AND 60S FOR THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 50S AND 60S FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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