175
FXCA20 KWBC 071949
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST WED FEB 07 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 FEB 2024 AT 1900 UTC: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST UNITED STATES IS EXTENDING OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO...PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA ON WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND BRINGING COLD AIR IN THE REGION...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE
WEST AND CENTRAL USA...AND DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OVER THE WEST USA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER MEXICO...BUT IT IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST SONORA. BY FRIDAY...AN
ADDITIONAL LOWE LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE OVER
MEXICO...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO DRY AIR AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 25MM IN THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EASTERN SONORA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN SONORA/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA CAN EXPECT MAXIM OF
15MM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A DEEP AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE USA AND EXTENDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
ITS BASE OVER COSTA RICA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS YIELDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING AN UNUSUAL POTENT FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE DARIEN REGION BETWEEN PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF VENEZUELA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
WEST OF THE SHEAR LINE AND INTO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND SOUTH OF
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING OF THESE SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRESENT OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
EASTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER AMOUNTS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
PROPAGATING EAST AND...WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY. WEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON
FRIDAY...THERE IS A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION...AS THE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DOMINATE BEHIND
THE FRONTS. OF NOTE...A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REORGANIZES EAST OF THE FRONT
AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. ON WEDNESDAY...EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND
MONTSERRAT...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...WHILE NORTH AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE. ON THURSDAY...MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT...MAXIMA OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH VENEZUELA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE OTHER AREAS IN VENEZUELA CAN SEE GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE...THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF ECUADOR WILL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN PERU AND WESTERN BRASIL...WHILE THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...WHERE LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERN
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. NORTHERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE
EASTERN PORTION OF ECUADOR...AND AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE A SHIFT OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FAVORS DECREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...EASTERN ECUADOR...AND EXTREME EAST AMAPA-BRASIL...CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAVORS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR AND NORTHERN
PERU...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. WESTERN ECUADOR CONTINUES TO SEE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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