261
FXCA20 KWBC 081256
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 AM EST THU FEB 08 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 08/12UTC:
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW THAT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
STILL OCCURING IN SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE VI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE WEST...AND THE MOIST PLUME FROM SOUTH AMERICA. ALTHOUGH
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...DEEP
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
AREA AND ARE ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND
ANTIGUA. THE MOIST PLUME AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES
MEANDERING EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY YIELD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. ALSO OF
RELEVANCE...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 23N 64W INTO NORTHEAST
HISPANIOLA AND IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY TOWARDS PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITING
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. IF ANY...LIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS EVENT...EXPECT A RAPID PROGRESSION INTO SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. IN FACT...EXPECT A RAPID TRANSITION INTO WELL
BELOW-NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. IN THE MID-LEVELS...THE SEASONAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT ITS INFLUENCE IN STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WIND CAP
WILL BE FELT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO VEER FROM NORTHERLIES EARLY ON FRIDAY TO NORTHEASTERLIES BY
SATURDAY...AND THEN TO EASTERLIES BY MONDAY MORNING. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...EXPECT VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY AND ON. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. GIVEN EASTERLY TRADES...EXPECT THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...GENERALLY REACHING MAXIMA
UNDER 0.2 INCHES.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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