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FXCA20 KWBC 082042
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EST THU FEB 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 FEB 2024 AT 2030 UTC: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST UNITED STATES EXPANDS INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO...DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE WESTERN
USA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO WESTERN SONORA...ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
COAHUILA...SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN DURANGO...AND INTO SINALOA.
LOCALIZED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
SONORA...AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEASONABLE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND WITH ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS WEAKENING...AND IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
LARGE AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND EAST PUERTO RICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EXTREME NORTH
VENEZUELA...WHILE COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WHILE PROPAGATING EASTWARD...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. AND THE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GUIANAS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE TRADE WINDS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
WEST INTO NORTHWESTERN BRASIL...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PERU/EAST ECUADOR ON THURSDAY. THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECT TO SEE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS
SEEING THE PRESENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ...AND IT IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR ON THURSDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PRESENCE IN WESTERN ECUADOR WILL
FAVOR INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ECUADOR AND
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COUNTRY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT AROUND 300 HPA IS DEBILITATING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER ECUADOR...WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THURSDAY. THIS INVERSION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEANING WE ARE LEANING TO THE
LOWER RANGE OF MODERATE TOTALS IN PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR/NORTH PERU...AND AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE...THE REGION CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERN
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE OVER
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR..AND NORTHERN PERU EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...WESTERN PERU CAN EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ...AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE REST OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAXIMA BELOW 35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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